Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries?
To answer this question, one must look at the stage in which a country is in during the demographic transition. The demographic transition by a country through the four levels of defined, separate growth patterns. In other words, countries in the second demographic stage (high growth) will most likely have a large growing population whereas a country like the U.S. that is in the 4th stage of the demographic transition (low or steady growth.) will have a low population increase. After understanding that principle, you can easily see why different countries experience different percent increase rates or even decrease rates. To be more specific, countries that experience high growth are Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa and countries experiencing low population increase are Germany, the U.S, and Japan. Population increase rates are directly correlated with the economic status of a country. (whether it is a MDC or LDC)
Demographic Transition
In order to understand population increases, you have to understand the demographic transition:
This is a process by which a country progresses through a series of irreversible population periods. It bars major catastrophes and assumes certain trends to be continuous for an amount of time. It is broken into 4 or 5 major stages.
- Stage 1: Low Growth: During this first stage, both the birth rate and the death rate are rather high and as a result the NIR was virtually zero. The population was very low and there is a direct dependency on hunted food. (Killing animals) Until farming, population fluxed many times as it changed as easily as a flock of deer leaving an area. When the agricultural revolution occurred around 8,000 BC, things changed and people learned to farm. By creating a more sustainable food source, more people were able to live and sustain themselves. The majority of human history was spent in this stage.
- Stage 2: High Growth: 10,000 years after the agricultural revolution came a similar population-changing vehicle. There became a sudden bubble of population. Populations were booming and there was an obvious reason: the Industrial Revolution. In the 1750s, a series of world changing inventions took over the shape of what life was like. It modernized how we eat, work, play, live, congregate, and many other aspects of life as we knew it. This stage emphasizes the rapid decrease in the death rate. Because customs still stressed the importance of having a large family, women still had many children and the TFR was still rather high. The wealth became available and before you knew it, the NIR sky-rocketed which led to huge population bursts in the 1800s.
- Also associated with this time period was the medical revolution. This individual revolution is important to human geographers because it stresses the diffusion of improved medical technology which is responsible to the lengthening life expectancy of child. The medical revolution also contributed greatly to the stage 2 population rise.
- Stage 3: Moderate Growth: When a country moves from stage 2 to stage 3, the first thing to happen is the steady decrease in the birth rate. The cause of this drop can be explained by two ways. The first it that women begin to use family planning (use of contraceptives, spread of birth control, eduction) to set limits on their family size for economic gain. The second is the increasing status of women in the work force. As more women come into the work force, they will have less time to cater to all 17 of their children. Lastly, the CBR declines because the death of the old problem of not being sure that all your children will survive. After the medical revolution, IMR drops caused women to believe that their first baby would almost be sure to survive; therefore, women did not need to have surplus children to ensure half would live.
- Stage 4: Low Growth: A country will reach stage 4 of the transition when the CBR declines to such a point that it meets the CDR and the NIR will equal zero. When it reaches this point of zero growth, geographers identify this condition as zero population growth or ZPG. To be sure that the ZPG is accurate, geographers measure when the TFR falls below 2.1, or the average number of children needed to sustain the population at a NIR of 0+. (This bars immigration, if you recall, so for popular countries, the TFR can be lower to sustain the population. This population change is caused by more changes in social customs.Women become much more a part of the labor force and live in urban societies where women might not even have the need to have children. Although considered to be the last phase of the demographic transition, geographers are now considering countries like Japan to be in the next phase of negative natural increase. (A stage 5)
The Demographic Transition in England
To apply the knowldedge of the demographic transition, we should examine England. Currently in the 4th stage of the demographic transition is a great example of how a country normally progresses through each stage.
- Stage 1: Engalnd was in the first stage of growth all the way up to the point in the 1750s when innovation and technology spurred and the Industrial Revolution modernized daily life in England. When England was invaded by the Normans in 1066, they had about one million people. In the seven hundred years of being a country, their population only increased by 5 million. During that period, the population changed but hovered around the area and the population steadily rose. CBR and CDR were about equal, both being rather high.
- Stage 2: (1750- 1880) By 1800, the high CBR remained but the CDR plummeted making way for massive English population growth. New medicines were offered and the food supply was able to meet the population demand. During these 125 years, England rose from 6 to 30 million with an average NIR of 1.4 percent.
- Stage 3: (1880- EARLY 1970s) As time progrsses through the early 20th century, the CDR continues to fall steadily as more health innovations come out. The major part of this time period is the growing importance of women in the workforce and the growing acceptance of having less children. The CBR, as a result, declines quickly, causing the steep drop in CBR.
- Stage 4: (1970s- PRESENT) Englnad has transitioned into the 4th stage of the demographic transition ever the since the CDR and CBR have found their balance point. The CDR and CBR are within 2 or less difference of eachother. While the CBR is 14, the CDR is 12 or 11. While the TFR is on a steady drop, well below the 2.1 needed, England has still managed some population growth by immigration. Eventually, England's predicted NIR is to be negative and will start a 5th stage. Although speculation, it is hard to imagine England coming full circle to go through the entire demographic transition. The only difference is total population where England had only 6 million in the 1740s, England has about 50 million today.
 |
| England's Transition |
The two most referenced time periods that are responsible for stage 2 are the: (rapid death death)
- Industrial Revolution: a series of improvements in industrial technology that transformed the process of manufacturing goods
- Medical Revolution: medical technology invented in Europe and North America that is diffused to poorer countries which then cause a drop in ailment from the traditional causes of death in these poorer countries in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. It causes longer and healthier lives.
Population Pyramid
Population pyramids show a country's population by age and gender groups. This type of representation is good for identifying the current demographic stage a country is in by the distribution of its population. It normally divides the population age groups into 5-year divisions. (0-4) Usually, males are shown on the left side and female right.
The shape of the pyramid can clearly show the stage it is in as I have said before:
 |
| Stage 2 pyramid |
 |
| Stage 4 pryamid |
Population pyramids also do a great job at showing another important part of a population, its age distribution. The most important factor in a population is the dependency ratio. This is the number of people in the workforce compared to the number of people who cannot or do not work. These people include the young and the elderly. Nearly half the people in stage 2 countries are dependents compared to only 1/3 in stage 4 countries. Large percentage of children in LDCs make it hard for the government to provide aid because of all the population they have to take care of. Each time a country passes a stage of the transition, the elderly get larger in percent. Older people benefit the most in stage 4 because of improved health care and more medicines available. The only problem associated with such graying populations is the burden they place on the government and the working part of the population. This is probably one of few things that LDCs and MDCs have in common; a burden that is brought on by itself.
Stage 2: High Growth
Places like Cape Verde are in the middle of high growth after facing some form of modernization. Cape Verde is a collection of 12 small islands off West Africa. Cape Verde had population changes with one year to the next as most countries incur by starvation and animal hunts. Cape Verde made the transition to stage when they launched an anti-malarial campaign in the 1950s. Since then, the CDR has dropped incrementally and the NIR has gone from 0 to about 1.7. This wild population fluctuation has still occurred even today. They still suffer from the trials of being in stage 2. They still have to worry about AIDS and other catastrophe, lie famine, that still cause changes in growth. Other stage 2 countries are Yemen, Lesotho and Namibia.
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
Chile is currently in the 3rd stage of the transition. It has changed from a predominately rural society into an urbanized factory country just like Europe was in the 1820s. Chile started in the 1900s as a stage 1 country and then eventually their CDR dropped in the 1930s and they had a population boom along with European immigration. This was caused by new medicines being introduced and better technology introduction during the late 1920s. Chile entered the stage 3 in 1960 after a vigorous government sanctioned family planning act was passed because of fears of eminent overpopulation issues. They would be in stage 4, but they have recently repealed the act and continue to support women to have large families while still benefiting from a low IMR. Other stage 3 countries include Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Paraguay.
Stage 4: Low Growth
Denmark serves as an excellent example of a country is stage 4 of the transition. Along with the majority of Europe, Denmark entered stage 2 in the 1750s during the industrial revolution. After about 50 years, the CBR began dropping as the need for larger families began to die out. This marked the 3rd stage. Since the 1970s, the CDR and CBR are about the same. This has marked their entrance into stage 4. By looking at the population pyramid for Denmark (a wider middle), one can see how there are just fewer younger people. The elderly (upper part) is relatively large and the NIR of Denmark has decreased to a very small percent. Some stage 4 countries include US, Japan, and France.
Stage 5 controversy: Over the past decade, demographers are beginning the categorize a new type of countries that is emerging. During the 4th stage, a country still has a positive NIR, meaning that it is still growing and prospering. Demographers have decided that after the NIR goes below ZPG into the negatives that a country has entered the 5th stage where there is a lack of growth. Japan is considered the starting 5th stage transition part.
Demographic Transition and World Population
As countries progress through each stage of the demographic transition, we have differences in population growth but more importantly, the world population is also affected. The demographic transition characterizes two big breaks to occur between them. The first is the massive break in CDR and the second is the massive break in the CBR. Because the majority of countries are still in either stage 2 or 3, there is a lot of worry about overpopulating. The first most worrying part is that first change (the drop in CDR) which causes booming population growth. This drop caused by advances in medicine such as x-rays and penicillin are for the good of population. Other advances like insecticides that help humans may cause damage to our environment. While reducing the CDR caused by insects and lack of invention, the overzealous CBR is a bit harder to take care of. Rapid population booms have raised the population exponentially. It used to be about 6 million a people more a year now the Earth has 80 million more people every year.
- Sex Ratio:This is the number of males per one hundred females. In Europe and North America, it is about 95 to 100. In most other parts of the world it is 102 to 100. The lack of women in LDCs is mostly caused by death of women during or after child birth. This number varies because of the roles women have in different stage of society.
- Dependency Ratio: the number of people in the work force compared to the number of people who do not work
- Age Distribution: the comparison of the people that make up the population and their age range (this is focal point of the population pyramid
Stage 2: High Growth
Places like Cape Verde are in the middle of high growth after facing some form of modernization. Cape Verde is a collection of 12 small islands off West Africa. Cape Verde had population changes with one year to the next as most countries incur by starvation and animal hunts. Cape Verde made the transition to stage when they launched an anti-malarial campaign in the 1950s. Since then, the CDR has dropped incrementally and the NIR has gone from 0 to about 1.7. This wild population fluctuation has still occurred even today. They still suffer from the trials of being in stage 2. They still have to worry about AIDS and other catastrophe, lie famine, that still cause changes in growth. Other stage 2 countries are Yemen, Lesotho and Namibia.
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
Chile is currently in the 3rd stage of the transition. It has changed from a predominately rural society into an urbanized factory country just like Europe was in the 1820s. Chile started in the 1900s as a stage 1 country and then eventually their CDR dropped in the 1930s and they had a population boom along with European immigration. This was caused by new medicines being introduced and better technology introduction during the late 1920s. Chile entered the stage 3 in 1960 after a vigorous government sanctioned family planning act was passed because of fears of eminent overpopulation issues. They would be in stage 4, but they have recently repealed the act and continue to support women to have large families while still benefiting from a low IMR. Other stage 3 countries include Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Paraguay.
Stage 4: Low Growth
Denmark serves as an excellent example of a country is stage 4 of the transition. Along with the majority of Europe, Denmark entered stage 2 in the 1750s during the industrial revolution. After about 50 years, the CBR began dropping as the need for larger families began to die out. This marked the 3rd stage. Since the 1970s, the CDR and CBR are about the same. This has marked their entrance into stage 4. By looking at the population pyramid for Denmark (a wider middle), one can see how there are just fewer younger people. The elderly (upper part) is relatively large and the NIR of Denmark has decreased to a very small percent. Some stage 4 countries include US, Japan, and France.
Stage 5 controversy: Over the past decade, demographers are beginning the categorize a new type of countries that is emerging. During the 4th stage, a country still has a positive NIR, meaning that it is still growing and prospering. Demographers have decided that after the NIR goes below ZPG into the negatives that a country has entered the 5th stage where there is a lack of growth. Japan is considered the starting 5th stage transition part.
Demographic Transition and World Population
As countries progress through each stage of the demographic transition, we have differences in population growth but more importantly, the world population is also affected. The demographic transition characterizes two big breaks to occur between them. The first is the massive break in CDR and the second is the massive break in the CBR. Because the majority of countries are still in either stage 2 or 3, there is a lot of worry about overpopulating. The first most worrying part is that first change (the drop in CDR) which causes booming population growth. This drop caused by advances in medicine such as x-rays and penicillin are for the good of population. Other advances like insecticides that help humans may cause damage to our environment. While reducing the CDR caused by insects and lack of invention, the overzealous CBR is a bit harder to take care of. Rapid population booms have raised the population exponentially. It used to be about 6 million a people more a year now the Earth has 80 million more people every year.
 | ||
| Exponential growth |
Current Events
Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth
In another of Rosling's fantastic lectures about world population he delves into the quest for understanding the differences in population growth. He compares the population increases to the mode of transportation each category of population growth uses. He ties in the fact that unless we provide affordable energy and substinitive food, these smaller, less wealthy countries will continue with their high NIRs and cause a lot of problems for our world in the coming future. (2050 projection) He points out very clearly that the world's population increases little in the modernized countries and a lot in the LDCs who strive for shoes rather than bicycles or cars.
